Let me first say that, as a student of market history, I’m usually a pretty big fan of using precedent analysis to gain insight into what the market may or may not do—because human nature doesn’t change, similar patterns repeatedly play out over the decades, so understanding the past is frequently helpful for both anticipating and navigating bull markets and market crashes.
Admittedly, most recently, the situation was a bit unique; there simply haven’t been past examples of worldwide “forced recessions” due to a pandemic. Even so, we have seen many crash-type environments, and by looking at some historic market crashes we can get an idea as to what kind of upmove is normal for a bounce … and what sort of strength might be telling us the buyers are really stepping up. Let’s run through three examples and see what insight they can give us.
3 Historic Market Crashes
First, let’s take a gander at 1998, when the market imploded due to global currency issues and (eventually) the blow-up of Long Term Capital Management; the Nasdaq’s first leg down saw it lose nearly 28% into late August. From there, the Nasdaq recouped 53% of its decline, but bumped into its declining 50-day line and most market timing indicator never turned positive. It then retested (undercut) its low a couple of weeks later before getting going.
The second of our historic market crashes, and perhaps the most similar to recent environments is the 1987 stock market crash—from its early-October peak, the S&P 500 imploded 34% in a matter of days. Interestingly, the bounce was pretty pathetic; the S&P recouped just 38% of its crash, couldn’t even approach its 50-day line and, of course, the indicators never turned positive. The retest came in early December before a choppy advance ensued.
Last, let’s look at 2011, which saw the Nasdaq fall 20% in just over a week. The action after that was incredibly volatile, but the bounce before the retest recouped 56% of the decline, ran into resistance near the falling 50-day line and, again, the indicators never turned positive.
What Previous Market Crashes Tell Us
Obviously, there are many other examples we could go through, but looking at these market crashes and other waterfall-like declines, a pre-retest bounce often will see the major indexes recoup 40% to 55% of their prior declines. However, it’s rare for the indicators to turn positive during that recouping period, and the 50-day line often provides resistance.
How did our most recent recovery stack up historically? This rebound was something unique—the Nasdaq recouped more than 55% of its crash decline (above 8,400), exceeded its 50-day line, and our indicators turned green. It was a big clue that there might not be a retest. In fact, the Nasdaq gapped up over its 50-day line and never looked back, doubling in value in less than a year.
*This post has been updated from a previously published version.