Healthcare 826

Healthcare stocks gained 14.8% in the past year, but many remain undervalued.

InMode Ltd. (INMD) | Daily Alert January 23

52wk H. 58.78 52wk L. 13.06 Mkt Cap: $1.24B, EPS 1.16, P/E: 36.25

The medical aesthetics company. A hallmark in plastic surgery: expects Q4-’19 earnings of $1.76/shr vs. $1.55/shr a year ago. Price of INMD has rocketed 190% since its IPO in August ’19. Carries a forward P/E of 28. Technical picture since its IPO has been ascending above its 50-DMA: (17-20) to (20-22) to (24-27). Gapping up (30-36) to (40-43). Correction/ retraction completed after topping at (55-58). Reversal has challenged primary resistance (39-41).

Secondary resistance at (47-52) and upper-head resistance at (56-58).

BUYING RANGE: 37-47 NR TERM OBJ: 55 INTERMED OBJ: 69 STOP LOSS: 32

Joseph Parnes, Shortex Market Letter, www.shortex.com, 800-877-6555, January 16, 2020

 

ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR) | Daily Alert February 4

In the past month, five analysts have increased their 2020 forecasts for this contract research organization.

ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR) is being added to the Focus List. A contract-research organization (CRO), ICON offers testing and research services for drugmakers. The CRO market remains healthy, benefiting from drugmakers expanding their budgets for research and development. Drugmakers are also funneling more of their R&D spending toward CROs.

In January, ICON issued its 2020 outlook, with per-share profits projected to climb 10% to 14% to $7.55 to $7.85, straddling the consensus of $7.71 at the time of the announcement. ICON expects 2020 sales to climb 6% to 10%, versus the consensus growth target of 8%. ICON is also a Long-Term Buy.

Richard Moroney, CFA, Dow Theory Forecasts, www.dowtheory.com, 800-233-5922, January 20, 2020

 

Mylan N.V. (MYL) | Daily Alert February 6

On July 29, 2019, Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Mylan N.V. (MYL) jointly announced that Pfizer’s Upjohn division would be combined with Mylan in a Reverse Morris Trust transaction. The transaction is expected to be tax-free for Pfizer shareholders, who will receive 57% of the shares of the new company, and taxable to Mylan shareholders, who will own 43% of the shares of the new company.

For Pfizer, spinning off its off-brand and generics business in Upjohn should allow the company to focus on its innovative core business, which is projected to grow faster than Upjohn, per analyst estimates. For Mylan, the key aspect of this deal was geographic revenue diversification. While Mylan has a strong foothold in the U.S. and Europe, Upjohn has a considerable presence in Asia and other emerging markets, allowing Mylan to reach an area of considerable growth without having to organically work to develop new markets on their own. This also diversifies Mylan revenues away from the U.S., which, considering the political climate surrounding drug pricing in America, should result in far lower volatility.

The new entity between Mylan and Upjohn will create substantial pure-play pharmaceutical company with revenue streams around the world. Mylan, as a stand-alone company, is a global generic and specialty pharmaceuticals company. For FY18, Mylan’s revenues included sales from drugs relating to Central Nervous System and Anesthesia, Infectious Diseases, Respiratory and Allergy, Gastroenterology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Dermatology, Oncology, Women’s Healthcare, Other, and Other Third party diseases.

Upjohn brings trusted, iconic brands, such as Lipitor (atorvastatin calcium), Celebrex (celecoxib) and Viagra (sildenafil), and proven commercialization capabilities, including leadership positions in China and other emerging markets.

Currently, the pipeline for the combined entity contains ~10 newly approved drugs, with dozens more in various stages of the pipeline process. Management expected to recognize ~$3bn in revenues from these new drugs by 2023.

The pro-forma entity is expected to have EBITDA margins in the ~40% range, and cost synergies that accelerate from $250mm in the first year to $1bn in year four of the merger. On a pro forma basis adjusting for shares that will be issued to Pfizer shareholders, Mylan looks interesting, trading at 6.6x free cash flow and 6.5x EBITDA.

Mylan also plans to pay a dividend of at least 25% of free cash flow, implying a minimum dividend of $1BN and dividend yield of 3.8%. We like the set up for Mylan. Shortly after the merger was announced, Mylan rallied but then fell as low as $17. If Mylan were to pull back to the mid to high teens, it would be an attractive buy. At that price, the implied yield on the stock would be close to 5%. Further, there would be significant additional free cash flow to de-lever and buy back stock.

This looks quite cheap.

Richard Howe, CFA, The Stock Spin-off Investing Newsletterwww.stockspinoffinvesting.com, 617-750-7454, January 31, 2020

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